Texas vs. Xavier Prediction: Who’s Punching Their Ticket in the March Madness First Four?

Here we are, folks—March Madness is officially upon us, and the First Four is serving up some tasty appetizers before the main course. Tonight, the Texas Longhorns and Xavier Musketeers are squaring off in Dayton, Ohio, with a coveted spot in the Round of 64 on the line. I’ve been glued to college hoops all season, and this matchup has me buzzing—let’s dive into my Texas vs Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four and figure out who’s moving on.

The Stakes Are High: What’s on the Line Tonight?

The First Four is the ultimate proving ground—win, and you’re in the big dance; lose, and it’s back to the couch with a consolation bracket. Texas (19-15) and Xavier (21-11) are both No. 11 seeds in the Midwest Region, fighting to face No. 6 Illinois on Friday. It’s a classic “do or die” scenario, and the energy at UD Arena is going to be electric.

I remember watching last year’s First Four games with my buddies, pizza in hand, screaming at the TV as underdogs pulled off upsets. This game feels like it could go either way, so let’s break it down.

Texas Longhorns: Can Talent Overcome Inconsistency?

The Longhorns have had a rollercoaster season—think Six Flags, not a kiddie ride. They finished 6-12 in the brutal SEC, but their résumé boasts wins over quality teams like Texas A&M and Kentucky. Freshman sensation Tre Johnson (19.8 points per game) is the X-factor—he’s a future NBA lottery pick who can drop 30 on any given night.

But here’s the rub: Texas is Jekyll and Hyde. Their offense can light up the scoreboard, but their defense? It’s leaky, ranking 210th nationally by allowing 71.2 points per game. For my Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four, I’m wondering if Johnson can carry them past their inconsistency.

Xavier, on the other hand, has been a different beast lately. They ripped off seven straight wins to close the regular season before a narrow 89-87 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. Led by Zach Freemantle (18.9 points, 8.3 rebounds over his last five games) and sharpshooter Ryan Conwell (41.8% from three), they’ve got firepower and grit.

What’s more, Xavier’s playing just an hour from their Cincinnati campus—expect a rowdy home crowd vibe. That momentum could be huge in this Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four.

Head-to-Head: How Do They Match Up?

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. Texas loves isolation ball—Johnson and transfer forward Arthur Kaluma thrive in one-on-one situations. Xavier, though, is a team that moves the ball crisp and fast, ranking 12th nationally in assists per game. According to NCAA stats, they’re also sixth in three-point shooting percentage (38.8%).

Texas struggles against the three (144th in defending it), which could spell trouble. Meanwhile, Xavier’s perimeter defense has holes—Johnson might feast if he gets hot. It’s a clash of styles that makes this game a coin flip.

Betting Odds: What the Numbers Say

As of this afternoon—March 19, 2025—the oddsmakers have Xavier as a slight favorite. BetMGM lists the Musketeers at -2.5 (-115), with Texas at +2.5 (-105). The over/under sits at 149.5, and the moneyline has Xavier at -150 and Texas at +125. For my Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four, those tight numbers reflect how close this could be.

I’ve been burned betting on March Madness before—last year, I thought NC State had no shot, and they went to the Final Four. So, I’m digging deeper than just the spread here.

Key Players to Watch: Who’s Stepping Up?

For Texas, it’s all about Tre Johnson. The kid’s a bucket-getter—ESPN’s stats show he dropped 39 points against Arkansas, including 7-of-11 from deep. If he catches fire, Texas could run away with it.

Xavier’s duo of Freemantle and Conwell is the counterpunch. Conwell’s been unconscious lately, going 24-for-41 from three over his last five games. If he keeps splashing and Freemantle dominates the paint, Xavier’s got the edge in this Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four.

Coaching Edge: Miller vs. Terry

Xavier’s Sean Miller is a March Madness veteran—Wikipedia notes he’s led teams to multiple tournament wins eight times. He’s got that postseason savvy, and his squads play disciplined ball. Texas’ Rodney Terry, meanwhile, took the Longhorns to the second round last year, but this team hasn’t clicked as consistently.

I’ve seen Miller’s teams pull off clutch wins—like that 2017 Elite Eight run as an 11-seed. His experience could tip the scales tonight.

Why Xavier Might Win

Xavier’s got a few aces up their sleeve. First, their offense is clicking—ranked 52nd in adjusted efficiency by KenPom, they shred drop coverage (90th percentile in mid-range efficiency). Texas’ defense, which fouls a ton (319th in free-throw rate allowed), plays right into Xavier’s hands—they’re elite at the line, shooting 79.4%.

Plus, that near-home crowd? It’s a intangible boost. In my Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four, I see the Musketeers feeding off that energy for a tight win.

Why Texas Could Pull It Off

Don’t sleep on Texas, though. Their talent is undeniable—Johnson’s a matchup nightmare, and Kaluma’s athleticism could exploit Xavier’s shaky rim protection (97th in near-proximity FG% allowed). The Longhorns also force turnovers (15.1 per game in the SEC Tournament), which could disrupt Xavier’s flow.

If they get hot early, they’ve got upset potential in this Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four. I’ve seen teams like this catch fire in March before.

My Official Prediction and Pick

Alright, moment of truth—here’s where I plant my flag. I’m leaning Xavier -2.5 (-115). Why? They’re the sharper team right now—better momentum, a more cohesive offense, and a coaching edge. Texas has the talent to keep it close, but their defensive lapses and foul trouble feel like a recipe for disaster against a poised Xavier squad.

Score prediction: Xavier 79, Texas 73. The over (149.5) might hit too—this could turn into a shootout. For your Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four, I’d ride with the Musketeers to cover and advance.

Actionable Advice: How to Bet This Game

If you’re hitting the sportsbooks, here’s my two cents. Take Xavier -2.5 at BetMGM (-115)—it’s a solid value for a team with multiple paths to victory. Feeling risky? Conwell over 17.5 points (-125 at FanDuel) is tempting, given his hot streak. For a long shot, Xavier 79-73 exact score (+17000 at DraftKings) could make your night.

Last year, I threw $10 on a wild First Four prop and cashed out big—March is all about taking a swing. Just don’t bet the rent money, okay?

Final Thoughts: Enjoy the Madness

Whether you’re a diehard fan or just here for the chaos, Texas vs. Xavier is the perfect way to cap the First Four. It’s got star power, stakes, and that unpredictable March vibe we all crave. My Texas vs. Xavier prediction, pick for March Madness First Four says Xavier moves on, but in this tournament? Anything can happen.

Grab your snacks, settle in, and let’s see how this one shakes out—9:10 p.m. ET on truTV. Who’s your pick? Drop it in the comments—I’m all ears!